Presidential Debate 9/30

The presidential debate is on...

Kerry sounds weak when opening.

Bush:
1) free nations don't use terror -- Look at Israel. Look at Timothy McVeigh. Look at the IRA.
2) 10 million registered to vote in Afghanistan - out of how many? Aren't they afraid to run for office? Didn't they just try to assassinate Hamid Karzai?
3) We went after threats we saw - Iran? North Korea? Much stronger than Iraq.

Bush invoked God (prayer) in his opening - Kerry hasn't touched it.

Kerry is coming across as a whiner, while Bush is coming across as focused, if misguided.

Did Kerry just say that Bush did not think Saddam was 10x a threat that Usama was? (when comparing troop levels)

Bush just lied. It took a lot of pressure to get him to go to the UN.

Bush has mentioned September 11th 3 times so far (15 minutes in).

Bush: the capability to go after both Saddam and Usama - what about the stop/loss commands? The attrition rate in the troops? The morale factor? The fact that attacks occur in both countries and neither are very secure in their efforts at democracy?

Bush: Iraqis want to be free -- Not the ones attacking US troops. They may prefer to be secure rather than free.

Kerry: mentions weapons of mass destruction - this sounds like an error on his part - he may be talking about roadside bombings, but radiological, etc? May come off bad.

Bush: scores with the observation that deriding the war does not support the troops.

Kerry is using his body language to promote his message. Bush does look like a child saying "Please, sir, may I have some more?" when addressing the camera.

Bush - we created Department of Homeland Security - after he was against it.

Bush: promote the paranoia.

(PATRIOT Act - an error in judgement.)

Bush: Invoked 9/11 again

Kerry - invoked Vietnam again (2nd or 3rd time)

Bush: sticking to the theme that Kerry can't question the military. Affects morale.

Mistake?:

Kerry - criticizes Iraq II, but immediately says the war is not a mistake (that the troops are not dying for a mistake) - doesn't that sound waffle-ish?

Bush - hammers on Kerry's notion that this is a false war. Hits on Kerry for criticizing the lack of allies, when there are Britain and Poland.

Neither mentions that countries have left the "Coalition of the Willing"

Bush mentions Japan as one, Koizumi as another when addressing summits of allies. Doesn't Koizumi run Japan as PM?

The point by Bush that a "peaceful Iraq will make this world a safer place". Anyone remember Weimar Germany? Anyone remember Yugoslavia electign Milosevic? Anyone currently aware that Putin is dismantling elections in Russia?

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Both have included the security of Israel in the debate now.

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Timeline:

Kerry: No timeline. But possible to begin reduction in numbers if we have international support. Need to train the Iraqis.

Bush: Training 100k people so far. According to news reports, some people do not have full loads in six-shooters against militants with RPGs.

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Future interventionist wars:

Bush: Hopefully not. (Well, the other two members of the Axis of Evil have or are getting nukes. I guess we won't.)

Kerry: Doesn't address this, but does hammer Bush on leaving Afghanistan and Usama for Iraq. The real enemy in this war? Not Saddam.

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Kerry is talking to intelligent people, Bush keeps going for the gut. (Kerry's legitimacy of interventionist/preemptive wars vs. Bush's if Americans are threatened (even if false reasoning))

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I believe Kerry scored on North Korea and Iran. Bush is on record for refusing to talk to North Korea while they effectively built nukes.

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Darfur: Not an issue to the majority of Americans. Helping Africa handle its problems is a laudable goal. Committing troops (both agree on this) is not an issue.
Kerry does score talking about back-door drafts and stop/loss programs. Bush ignores this.

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Nuclear proliferation is the biggest threat for Kerry. Same for Bush. Then how did North Korea get nukes on Bush's watch? Does Iraq lessen as a priority for Bush if he gets re-elected?

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Russia and Putin...

Bush said he trusted the man implicitly then dropped out of the ABM treaty. Bush may have castigated Putin on the removal of elections for regional governors, but it may be that Bush has no credibility in the eyes of Russia given treaty withdrawals as well as the expansion of NATO to the Russian border.

Kerry also said this is a problem for him as well.

Closing...

Kerry, good message "The future belongs to ... freedom, not fear". Solid and consistent, even if at moments appearing weak and whiny.

Bush, still blind and focused on winning.

I think Kerry won. Bush avoided a lot of raised points.

TTFN